Unlikely Words » nfl

Ravens-Patriots trash talk from The Wire

aaron cohen — Sat, 21 Jan 2012 17:18:09 +0000

All sports trash talk should be done with images from The Wire.

Original images by Jake's friend, Jake, and Jamie.

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The Patriots always kick off

aaron cohen — Mon, 09 Jan 2012 22:18:04 +0000

Earlier in the season, I noticed that it seemed like the Patriots were always kicking off to start games. I didn't think a lot about it until a Boston Globe article this weekend made it clear how often they do this. I only noticed because when I used to play Madden, I'd kick off to start every game, too. Since 9/7/08 (opening day of the 08 season (the day Brady got hurt)), the Patriots have played 65 games and won the coin toss 43% of the time. In each of those 28 games, they've kicked off in the 1st quarter and received the ball to start the 2nd half.

If you talk to Bill Belichick, he'll tell you they talk about it before every game, “We discuss that every week. If we win the toss, if we lose the toss, what the wind is going to be, whatever the conditions are. We talk about it before every game.’’ I don't believe that at all, actually, but so far, only one team has made the Patriots receive to start the game.

Incidentally, a study from earlier in the year said that the team that won the coin flip won the football game 52.6% of the time.

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Peyton Manning’s Interception Quote

aaron cohen — Mon, 08 Feb 2010 15:00:52 +0000

Via Kenny, Jorge Arangure's amazing Twitter update:

Hey I'm sure when Peyton Manning was growing up he always wanted to throw the TD pass that gave the Saints a Super Bowl win. Now he has.

Which lead to the return of the Manning Face. Not seen in these parts for several years.

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Bill Belichick Was Right

aaron cohen — Sat, 21 Nov 2009 16:32:19 +0000

Photo by Flickr user Keith Allison People in Boston have been spoiled by our sports teams this decade. The Red Sox have won 2 World Series, the Patriots have been dominant since 2001, and even the Celtics got involved in the world beating. The Patriots and the Red Sox have been so good that the phrases, "In Bill We Trust" and "In Theo We Trust" have been tossed around unironically regarding Bill Belichick and Theo Epstein of the Pats and Sox respectively.

Last Sunday, the Patriots beat the hell out of Peyton Manning and the Colts for about 50 minutes, up by 2 scores much of the game. And then with a little over 2 minutes left, they found themselves on the Colts' 28 yard-line on 4th down up by 6 points. Football teams punt here. Always. But Belichick sent the offense out to get the 2 yards and win the game. It's unclear if he was trying to send a message, or if he just wanted to keep the ball out of Manning's hands. In any case, this paragraph of cliches is over, the Pats didn't get the first down, the Colts scored and won the game.

Bill Belichick was right. I would have been OK with him punting, but I'm more than OK with him going for it, whatever the reason and the stats agree.

Statistically, the better decision would be to go for it, and by a good amount. However, these numbers are baselines for the league as a whole. You'd have to expect the Colts had a better than a 30% chance of scoring from their 34, and an accordingly higher chance to score from the Pats' 28. But any adjustment in their likelihood of scoring from either field position increases the advantage of going for it. You can play with the numbers any way you like, but it's pretty hard to come up with a realistic combination of numbers that make punting the better option. At best, you could make it a wash.

Here's a coach who never punts, ever. He also doesn't have his team return punts or kick off deep. The last time he punted was in 2007 when he was trying to be a good sport to a team he was destroying.

Phil Simms thinks that if Belichick had been able to challenge the call, he would have gotten a more favorable spot and gotten the first down.

Via a football newsletter Gareth gets (link unavailable):

Kevin Eikenberry, leader of Indianapolis-based consultant the Kevin Eikenberry Group: "Most of us in corporate leadership or executive leadership would profess that great leaders take risks, and yet, I'm guessing most of those same people who watched the game (especially in New England) feel like Belichick made a big mistake. We can't have it both ways. The longer I think about it from a leadership perspective, the more I applaud the coach's decision ... This is a real life example of a leader standing up and making a decision, one that in this case, didn't turn out in his favor."

Finally, Bill Simmons who has spent the entire year telling us Manning is unbeatable at night says Belichick should have punted. Aside from the fact that Simmons stopped killing Manning after he met him at the ESPY Awards a couple years ago, punting would have given Manning the opportunity to win the game. Getting the first down would have ended the game. I think I still like Bill Simmons, but I can't shake the feeling that what he's doing has gotten tired. I think he's going to move on ESPN eventually and do something new/big and that will be good for everyone. In this column, he's annoyingly playing homer contrarian, killing Belichick for a move he would have applauded had it worked, killing Belichick for a move he would have applauded a couple years ago, even if it hadn't.

In Bill We Trust

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NFL Teams Should Attempt More Onside Kicks

aaron cohen — Tue, 27 Oct 2009 20:34:46 +0000

A statistical on whether NFL teams should attempt more onside kicks. The answer is yes, sort of. If an opposing team is not expecting an onside kick, the rate of recovery is actually quite good, around 60%. However:

The catch is that teams can’t do this very often. The key is that the onside attempt is unexpected. As soon as a team is known for sneaky onside kicks, its success rate will go down. But this isn’t such a bad thing. As opponents are forced to respect the threat of an onside kick, their normal kick return blocking will suffer, allowing overall net kickoff distance to improve. Ultimately, there would be an equilibrium, making life more difficult for the receiving team.

Thanks, Dave!

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Michael Lewis on the Draft of Michael Oher

aaron cohen — Tue, 28 Apr 2009 16:35:26 +0000

Michael Lewis comments here and here in the Baltimore Sun on the draft of Michael Oher by the Balitmore Ravens in the first round. Lewis' book, The Blind Side, tells the tale of Oher who was earmarked at 16 to be a first round pick at offensive tackle. "It's so seldom that things work out the way they're supposed to work."

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Sandra Bullock joins ‘Blindside’ team

aaron cohen — Mon, 23 Feb 2009 20:19:36 +0000

Michael Lewis movies are the next big thing, huh? First Brad Pitt and Steven Soderbergh in Moneyball, now word that Sandra Bullock will star in Lewis' The Blind Side. The star of the book, left tackle Michael Oher, is scheduled to be picked in the top half of the NFL's 2009 amateur draft, by the way. Seems like someone probably owns the option on Liars Poker, right? That would be topical.

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Service, Courage, and Bravery

matt — Sat, 31 Jan 2009 18:00:12 +0000

This, from Joe Posnanski, made me chuckle out loud:

Kudos to the NFL for their controversial decision, announced on Thursday, to “salute service, courage and bravery” at this year’s Super Bowl. That is so much better than the theme in Super Bowl XXXIV, which was, I believe, “to lightly mock service, courage and bravery” or the pregame show in Super Bowl XIII which was designed to “just kind of ignore service, courage and bravery.”

(Huh, this appears to be post number 1,000 on Unlikely Words.)

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